Israeli Planes Strike Targets In Gaza

GAZA (Reuters) - Israeli planes carried out air strikes against targets in the Gaza Strip on Sunday, injuring seven Palestinians, Palestinian medical workers said.

An army spokesman said the strikes, which occurred after a rocket fired from the Hamas-run enclave landed in Israel, had targeted two factories in the central and northern Gaza used to make weapons and a smuggling tunnel under the border with Egypt.

Palestinian witnesses and medical workers said the targets included a metal foundry in the central Gaza Strip, a caravan in the north and smuggling tunnels in the south.

The attacks occurred one day after Hamas said it had reached an agreement with smaller armed groups in the territory to halt sporadic rocket fire towards Israel, which often responds with air strikes.

The army spokesman said the air strikes were in response to a rocket fired from the Gaza Strip on Saturday. It landed near the city of Sderot, causing no injuries or damage, he said.

Calm along the Israel-Gaza frontier has been largely maintained since Israel ended a 22-day war against Hamas in the territory in January with the aim of halting daily rocket fire.

The Israeli military usually responds to sporadic rocket attacks by launching air strikes against tunnels under the Egyptian border used to smuggle goods and weapons into Gaza.

Egypt has been trying to mediate a prisoner exchange between Israel and Hamas that would include the release of a captured Israeli soldier held in Gaza since 2006 in return for hundreds of Palestinians jailed in Israel.

China mine death toll rises to 87

The death toll from a coal mine explosion in north-east China has risen to 87.

According to Chinese state media, 21 other miners are still trapped underground.

Officials say hopes are fading of finding any more survivors in the country's latest coal mine disaster.

According to rescue official Zhang Fucheng, dense gas and collapsed tunnels have hampered rescue efforts.

The accident was caused yesterday by a huge underground gas explosion which rocked the Xinxing mine in Heilongjiang near the Russian border.

A total of 528 workers were in the mine at the time and hundreds escaped.

The mine's general manager and chief engineer have been sacked, according to Chinese media reports.

China has an appalling work safety record in mines, with hundreds of workers dying each year.

Explaining cost savings in the Senate bill

Reporting from Washington - Some reader questions about the healthcare legislation in Congress:

If the Senate bill is estimated to cost $848 billion over the next decade, how can Democrats say it will cut the federal budget deficit by $130 billion?

The Congressional Budget Office says that the government will take in more in revenues from taxes and fees -- and save money by trimming the fat out of Medicare -- than it will spend extending health coverage to more Americans.

Under the Senate plan, a tax on high-cost insurance plans is expected to generate about $150 billion over the next decade. Fees on drug companies, medical device makers and insurers are expected to bring in about $100 billion. The bill also raises the payroll tax on high-income workers who receive Medicare.

At the same time, it projects extracting about $436 billion in cost savings in Medicare over the next 10 years, mainly by changing the way doctors and hospitals are paid.

Does that mean my Medicare benefits will be slashed?

Payments would be reduced to Medicare Advantage plans, a popular private alternative to standard Medicare.

The bill also would establish a commission that would be charged with finding other sources of savings.

The Congressional Budget Office says it is likely that the commission will focus on reducing payments for benefits that are not required under Medicare but that are often offered by Medicare Advantage plans.

What about the tax on cosmetic surgery?

The Senate bill imposes a 5% tax on elective cosmetic procedures or surgeries. It would apply if the procedure is "not necessary to ameliorate a deformity arising from, or directly related to, a congenital abnormality, a personal injury resulting from an accident or trauma, or disfiguring disease." That likely includes such procedures as nose jobs, breast implants and Botox injections.

If the bill becomes law, the tax could start as soon as January and raise an estimated $5 billion over the next decade to pay for the healthcare overhaul.

Are there differences in the way the House and Senate bills treat abortion coverage?

Both attempt to prevent federal funds from being used to pay for abortions, but the Senate language is less sweeping than the amendment adopted by the House.

The House bill expressly prohibits insurers from offering abortion coverage to anyone who receives federal subsidies, and prohibits the government-run insurer -- the "public option" -- from offering abortion coverage.

The Senate bill requires insurers, whether public or private, to segregate federal money from premium revenues in separate accounts to ensure that only private funds are used to cover abortions.

It is likely that Republicans and moderate Democrats will use the Senate floor debate to push for language that more closely resembles the House bill's.

Australia issues "catastrophic" alerts as fires rage

SYDNEY: "Catastrophic" alerts have been issued in Australia after record-breaking temperatures and wild lightning storms sparked more than 100 fires across the country, officials said Saturday.

The unseasonably hot and dry weather combined with strong winds have led to blazes breaking out in the country's south eastern states.

In New South Wales (NSW) a total fire ban - preventing people from doing such things as burning rubbish or having barbecues - was issued, while the Blue Mountains National Park was closed Saturday.

And in Tasmania, Australia's southernmost island state, three homes were razed Friday at Dolphin Sands, a beachside town.

More than 60 fresh blazes were sparked by the lightning storms, which mostly hit New South Wales, while the states of Victoria South Australia were also affected.

"Temperatures have been quite elevated so the fuel is very dry, and add those winds and it doesn't take much for fires to run very, very quickly indeed," a NSW Rural Fire Service (RFS) spokesman said.

"Basically it's very hot and very dry... it will be a trying day. It doesn't look like there will be any reprieve until Sunday."

A Catastrophic, or Code Red, alert urging residents to abandon their homes was issued on Friday in New South Wales.

The warning was issued for the first time ever in South Australia on Tuesday, under a new national system developed in response to February's devastating "Black Saturday" wildfires.

Code Red conditions are considered on a par with those experienced ahead of Black Saturday, Australia's worst disaster of modern times, which killed 173 in Victoria and destroyed more than 2,000 homes.

Residents cannot be forcibly evacuated but are strongly advised to leave their property on a Code Red day, which signifies a high risk of death or injury and destruction.

Australia is facing its worst fire danger in four years, with hotter and windier conditions and earlier than normal outbreaks forecast, according to government analysis published this week.

- AFP/yb

WHO says mutation found in H1N1 flu virus in Norway

GENEVA - The World Health Organisation said Friday that a mutation had been found in samples of the H1N1 flu virus taken following the first two deaths from the pandemic in Norway.

However, it stressed that the mutation did not appear to cause a more contagious or more dangerous form of A(H1N1) influenza and that some similar cases observed elsewhere had been mild.

"The Norwegian Institute of Public Health has informed WHO of a mutation detected in three H1N1 viruses," the WHO said in a briefing note.

"The viruses were isolated from the first two fatal cases of pandemic influenza in the country and one patient with severe illness," it said, although it added that no further instances were found in tests.

"Norwegian scientists have analysed samples from more than 70 patients with clinical illness and no further instances of this mutation have been detected.

This finding suggests that the mutation is not widespread in the country," the UN health agency explained.

WHO spokesman Gregory Haertl told AFP that the global health watchdog did not believe "that this has any significant impact for the time being."

However, the agency revealed that a similar mutation had been observed in Brazil, China, Japan, Mexico, Ukraine, and the United States, as early as April.

"The mutations appear to occur sporadically and spontaneously. To date, no links between the small number of patients infected with the mutated virus have been found and the mutation does not appear to spread," the statement said

Some of those cases also produced mild symptoms, Haertl noted.

The WHO also underlined that there was no evidence of more infections or more deaths as a result, while the antiviral drugs used to treat severe flu, oseltamivir (Tamiflu) and zanamivir (Relenza), were still effective on the mutated virus.

"Studies show that currently available pandemic vaccines confer protection," it added, as mass vaccine campaigns were slowly gaining ground in the northern hemisphere amid signs of public skepticism in several European nations.

Scientists fear that mutations in flu viruses could cause more virulent and deadly pandemic flu. The global health watchdog reiterated a call for close monitoring.

The WHO was still assessing the significance of the latest observation, but it stressed that many such changes in the flu virus do not alter the illness it causes in patients.

"Although further investigation is under way, no evidence currently suggests that these mutations are leading to an unusual increase in the number of H1N1 infections or a greater number of severe or fatal cases," it added.

Norwegian authorities reported the country's first H1N1 flu death on September 3, a 52 year-old Danish truck driver who died just over a week earlier.

On Friday, WHO data showed reported that around 6,750 people had died from H1N1 flu since the virus was first uncovered in Mexico and the United States in April.

That represented an increase of about 500 more than a week ago, as the pandemic took hold in the northern hemisphere during the cold season.

The WHO estimates that some 250,000 to 500,000 people die every year from standard seasonal variants of H1N1 flu.

- AFP /ls

Vatican in Bold Bid to Attract Anglicans

The Vatican said it will make it far easier for disgruntled Anglicans to convert to Catholicism, in one of Rome's most sweeping gestures to a Protestant church since the Reformation.

A newly created set of canon laws, known as an "Apostolic Constitution," will clear the way for entire congregations of Anglican faithful to join the Catholic Church. That represents a potentially serious threat to the already fragile world-wide communion of national Anglican churches, which has about 77 million members globally.

Vatican official Cardinal William Levada announces plans to make it easier for Anglicans to convert to Catholicism.

The move comes nearly five centuries after King Henry VIII broke with Rome and proclaimed himself head of the new Church of England after being refused permission to divorce.

In a news conference Tuesday, Cardinal William Levada, head of the Vatican's office on doctrine, described the measures as a step in the Holy See's long efforts to heal the rift between Roman Catholicism and Anglicanism. He said they are a response to requests from Anglicans around the world seeking to join the Catholic Church.

Such requests have grown with the Anglicans' embrace of liberal theological doctrine, starting with the ordination of women priests in the 1970s.

The Vatican stressed that Pope Benedict XVI, who plans to visit the U.K. next year, wasn't seeking to poach from the Anglicans. The two churches have for decades been engaged in formal dialogue aimed at healing the wounds of the schism.

Still, the announcement appeared to catch Anglican leaders off guard. Hours after it was made, Archbishop Williams sent a letter to Anglican bishops expressing concern over any confusion the news may cause them.

Attack shuts all Pakistan schools

All schools and universities have been closed across Pakistan a day after suicide bombers attacked an Islamic university in the capital, Islamabad.

Four people died and at least 18 were wounded in the twin blasts at the International Islamic University.

The Taliban claimed the attack and said there would be more violence unless the army ended its offensive in the tribal areas of South Waziristan.

It was the first attack since the army began it offensive against militants.

Following the attack, Pakistan's Interior Minister Rehman Malik said that Pakistan was now in state of war.

'Indefinite'

The government has ordered the closure of schools, colleges and universities to prevent them from being targeted by suicide bombers.

Earlier, schools run by the armed forces and the government - and some public schools - closed for a week in the wake of the South Waziristan operation.

The BBC's M Ilyas Khan in Islamabad says the present closure is indefinite.

Schools, colleges and universities may reopen next week if the security threat decreases, he says.

A wave of attacks on Pakistani cities have killed more than 180 people in October alone.

Wednesday's attack was the first since the army launched its offensive against the Taliban in South Waziristan.

The militants have threatened more such attacks if the army continues its offensive.

Meanwhile, in South Waziristan, fighting is continuing for the fifth day as Pakistani troops battle to gain control of the key Taliban-held town of Kotkai.

Because of reporting restrictions, it is extremely hard to find out what is going on there.

The fighting has caused tens of thousands of civilians to flee the area.

College tuition is up sharply amid recession

With the economy struggling, parents and students dared to hope this year might offer a break from rising college costs. Instead, they got another sharp increase.

Average tuition at four-year public colleges in the U.S. climbed 6.5 percent, or $429, to $7,020 this fall as schools apologetically passed on much of their own financial problems, according to an annual report from the College Board, released Tuesday. At private colleges, tuition rose 4.4 percent, or $1,096, to $26,273.

"Every sector of the American economy is under stress and higher education is no exception," said Terry Hartle, senior vice president of the American Council on Education. "It's regrettable, and it's yet another piece of disappointing economic news that affects families."

The price increases came despite painful cost-cutting by colleges on everything from faculty to cafeterias and sports travel. And as usual, the rise in tuition outstripped the overall inflation rate.

In fact, during the period covered by the report, consumer prices declined 2.1 percent. So the latest tuition increase at public colleges was closer to 9 percent in real terms.

"It's only natural for parents to question why colleges are raising their prices yet again, while the rest of our economy is inflation-free," said James Boyle, president of the group College Parents of America.

The news isn't all bad. The estimated net price — what the average student actually pays after financial aid is taken into account — is still much lower than the list price, at about $1,620 at public four-year colleges, and under $12,000 at private ones. Both figures are up slightly from last year but still lower than five years ago.

Community colleges, home to about 40 percent of college students, raised prices, too, but tuition is still essentially free to many, after financial aid is factored in.

A companion report also out Tuesday shows financial aid from Uncle Sam is surging and reliance on often-expensive private loans has plummeted. And while students in states such as California, Florida and New York have seen double-digit tuition increases, some other states have held the line. Maryland and Missouri froze tuition.

Still, this year's increases were bad news for the estimated one-third of students who do not receive grant aid and must pay full price.

Environmentalists hope UN talks tough on climate change

(CNN) -- You're probably not thinking about what you would like for Christmas yet. But ask any environmentalist for their ideal gift and you'll get a version of this answer: a binding agreement at the UN Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen this December that is strong enough to match the science.

The talks are the latest in a line of climate conferences that began in Rio de Janeiro in 1992. This year the focus will be on the details of a new global climate agreement for when the Kyoto Protocol expires in 2012.

The stakes are high.

The representatives of 192 national governments, along with countless lobbyists and special interest groups, will gather between 7-18 December against a backdrop of increasingly gloomy academic papers, all predicting dramatic and catastrophic changes to the world -- unless we act right now.

"The issues at stake are greater than any decisions made in human history," Tom Picken of Friends of the Earth International told CNN. "With unprecedented consequences for the ecosystems of the planet, the well-being of all humanity, the very survival of hundreds of millions, if not billions of people, and the ability of future generations to have and enjoy life on Earth."

According to Kofi Annan's Global Humanitarian Forum, there are already more than 300,000 deaths per year directly attributable to climate change. While hundreds of studies around the world have linked climate change to phenomena including the increased frequency and intensity of hurricanes and other storms, changing rainfall patterns, drought, coastal flooding, changing disease patterns and the migration of human populations.

As a result climate change is no longer just a "green" issue, with organizations now campaigning for action also including trade unions, humanitarian NGOs such as Oxfam, Christian Aid and the Red Cross; even civil groups, like the Women's Institute in the UK, are demanding action.

But, despite this broadening of the issue and what most experts argue is unequivocal scientific proof that we need to act immediately to avoid even more serious consequences, so far activists agree that the necessary changes aren't coming nearly fast enough.

"The political and economic responses to climate change so far are simply tinkering at the edges of what's needed in relation to what's at stake," says Picken.

"Climate science is becoming increasingly clear and [it is] widely agreed that we are on the verge of passing irreversible tipping points, whereby although catastrophic impacts might not be evident for some decades, delay in the atmospheric system could mean a point of no return is passed imminently.

"The best available science indicates we are now at that juncture... This means that political and economic decisions made in Copenhagen are vital if we are to have any reasonable chance of avoiding these tipping points."

Progress being made

On some levels there is no doubt progress has been made. Climate change is now part of the popular lexicon and an important political issue. However, the gulf between what is being done to address the problem, and what pressure groups argue needs to be done is growing wider.

With the clock ticking, Friends of the Earth believe that now is the time for radical change: "What we need to see in Copenhagen is genuine shifts toward making the cuts [in emissions] needed in developed countries, the commitment to the finance needed to support developing countries, and perhaps most of all, an abandonment of failed policies -- or false solutions.

"This boils down to ensuring [industrialized] countries commit to making at least 40 percent cuts by 2020 without recourse to offsetting within this range, mobilize the necessary international finance to support mitigation in developing countries and protect forests without using offset mechanisms to buy up tracks of rainforest at the expense of making real industrial emissions cuts at home." Watch how Japan is struggling to meet its emissions targets »

Kim Jong Il meets Hyundai official

CNN) -- North Korean leader Kim Jong Il met with Hyundai's chairwoman, who had come from South Korea seeking the release of an employee detained since March, South Korean media reported.


Hyundai Group Chairwoman Hyun Jeong-eun arrives at the customs office in Paju, South Korea, on August 10.

Yonhap, South Korea's official news agency, said Hyundai Group Chairwoman Hyun Jeong-eun traveled to North Korea on August 10 for what was planned as a three-day mission. Yu Seong-jin -- the employee detained since March -- was freed and returned home Thursday, Yonhap added.

Hyun stayed in Pyongyang longer than planned, as she waited for a meeting with Kim, who according to North Korean media had been out of town.

North Korea's state-run news agency KCNA said Kim met with the chairwoman "and her party on a visit to Pyongyang at the invitation of the Korea Asia-Pacific Peace Committee."

North Korea agreed to resume cross-border tourism, ease border controls and schedule a reunion for separated families across the Korean peninsula in early October, KCNA reported.

Officials also agreed to resume tourism of the historic border city of Kaesong and "energize the operation" of the jointly run industrial complex there, KCNA said.

"Both sides expressed will to improve the north-south relations," KCNA reported.

Kim has met with the Hyundai chief twice before in recent years, Yonhap reported.

Hyundai "pioneered cross-border business with North Korea about a decade ago," the Yonhap report said, adding that the company's "joint tourism ventures in North Korea hit a snag last year amid worsening political tensions."

The employee, Yu Seong-jin, was accused of "slandering the North's political system," Yonhap reported, noting that he was released days after North Korea freed two U.S. journalists after a meeting between Kim and former U.S. President Bill Clinton.

Japan's Economy Returns to Growth

TOKYO -- Japan's economy grew for the first time since early last year, pulling the world's second-largest economy out of its longest recession since World War II and offering the latest sign that the world is pulling out of its economic slump.

But the data showed Japan benefited from inventory adjustments and a rise in exports and government spending -- not natural domestic demand -- suggesting lingering structural problems that could undermine any Japanese recovery.

The nation's real gross domestic product grew 0.9% in the second quarter from the prior quarter, an annual pace of expansion of 3.7%, Cabinet Office data showed. That was slightly worse than the 1% on-quarter growth and 3.9% annualized expansion forecast by Tokyo-based economists polled by Dow Jones Newswires. It was Japan's first quarter of GDP growth since the quarter ended in March 2008.

A positive growth rate could help the ruling Liberal Democratic Party mitigate what political analysts expect to be a sharp defeat in Lower House general elections on Aug. 30 after more than 50 years of almost uninterrupted rule.

The results offered the latest sign that the world, with a significant push from Asia, is shrugging off its economic malaise. Strong exports, particularly to China and other parts of Asia, were a key driver of Japan's growth. China's massive $585 billion stimulus spending and loosened bank lending has accelerated slowing growth, giving the region a boost. Hong Kong last week said it pulled out of its recession in the most recent quarter, while Singapore and South Korea have posted strong improvements.

Europe is also pulling out of recession, with positive growth reported in the most recent quarters in Germany and France. That is in contrast to the U.S., where the recession has eased in severity but where domestic consumption remains weak.

While surging domestic demand has been a key part of Asia's recovery, Japan's data Monday highlighted long-term hindrances to growth at home that set the nation apart from faster-growing Asian economies. Much of Japan's economic performance in the second quarter came from exports and government spending rather than improving conditions at home.

At the same time, firms' capital expenditures declined, and economists were skeptical of the prospects for a rise in domestic consumption absent stimulus efforts. "Unless overseas demand keeps growing, a recovery in domestic demand and [corporate investment] should take more time," NLI Research Institute senior economist Taro Saito said.

Porsche shares surge after agreeing Volkswagen deal

LONDON (MarketWatch) -- Shares in Germany's Porsche SE surged over 10% Friday after Volkswagen agreed to buy a 42% stake in its core sports car business as the precursor to a full merger in 2011.

The deal follows a failed attempt by Porsche /quotes/comstock/11e!fpah3 (DE:PAH3 49.11, +4.41, +9.87%) to take over its bigger rival. Porsche amassed over 10 billion euros of debt after building a roughly 50% stake in Volkswagen and acquiring options on around another 20%.

But it was unable to sustain the high levels of debt and was eventually forced to seek help from Volkswagen.

Shares in Porsche jumped 10.7% in early trading Friday, while Volkswagen dropped 3.5%.

Porsche is negotiating to sell its remaining options on Volkswagen to investors in Qatar.

Volkswagen said Friday that the planned deal is conditional on the successful sale of those options, which would make Qatar the group's third biggest shareholder.

"Additional new growth opportunities will emerge for Porsche under the umbrella of the integrated group," said Volkswagen CEO Martin Winterkorn in a statement.

"Following constructive talks, we have agreed a solution that reflects the interests of all parties. I am convinced that the outcome of this integration will be the best vehicles for our customers, secure jobs and the creation of long-term value for our shareholder," he added.

Porsche said late Thursday that Winterkorn will become its CEO with effect from Sept. 15 and that Volkswagen Chief Financial Officer Hans Dieter Poetsch will take over the top finance role at Porsche on the same date.

The sports care group's former CEO Wendelin Wiedeking and finance chief Holger Haerter both stepped down late last month.

Consumer Prices Flat From June

WASHINGTON -- U.S. consumer prices fell last month at their fastest annual pace since 1950, an indication that inflation isn't a threat to the economy or the Federal Reserve.

The consumer price index was unchanged on a monthly basis in July from June, the Labor Department said Friday, matching economist expectations, according to a Dow Jones Newswires survey.

The core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, rose 0.1%, which was also in line with expectations.

Unrounded, the CPI posted no change last month. The core CPI advanced 0.091% unrounded.

Consumer prices plunged 2.1% compared to one year ago, the largest 12-month decline since January 1950. Most Fed officials think a positive inflation rate around 2% is consistent with their dual mandate of price stability and maximum employment.

While energy and commodity prices have risen recently, "substantial resource slack is likely to dampen cost pressures, and the Committee expects that inflation will remain subdued for some time," the Fed said in a policy statement Wednesday. That view appears supported by Friday's CPI report.

With inflation under control and the economy still quite sluggish -- even if the worst of the downturn appears to be over -- the Fed is expected to hold interest rates near zero into 2010.

Annual inflation was above 5% as recently as August 2008, before last year's energy and commodity price drops kicked in and the global recession eased pressure on import prices.

But annual inflation rates should start turning positive later this year given the rise in energy prices earlier in 2009 and an apparent resumption in global growth.

Meanwhile, the less-volatile core CPI index was up 1.5% in July from one year ago, which is more in line with the Fed's objectives.

According to Friday's CPI report, energy prices fell 0.4% in July from June, and were down 28.1% over the last 12 months. Gasoline prices fell 0.8% last month, while food prices slid 0.3%.

Transportation prices, meanwhile, increased 0.2%. Airline fares increased 2.1%, while new vehicle prices rose 0.5%.

Housing, which accounts for 40% of the CPI index, fell 0.2%. Rents were unchanged, as was owners' equivalent rent. Household fuels and utilities prices slid 0.1%. Lodging away from home fell 2.1%.

In a separate report, the Labor Department said the average weekly earnings of U.S. workers, adjusted for inflation, rose 0.4% in July from June.

Lockerbie bomber drops appeal, Scotland mulls move

By BEN McCONVILLE (AP)

EDINBURGH, Scotland — Lawyers for the man serving a life sentence for the attack on Pan Am Flight 103 over Lockerbie said Friday he intends to drop his appeal against conviction, as Scottish officials consider his request for transfer to Libya.

British broadcasters this week said without citing sources that Abdel Baset Ali al-Megrahi would be released early from a Scottish prison on compassionate grounds. He is terminally ill with cancer.

The Scottish government said it has yet to decide on his motion for early release. They are also considering a motion to allow him to serve the rest of his sentence in Libya.

Earlier this year, al-Megrahi was told he must drop his appeal against his conviction before he could be considered for a prison transfer to Libya. No transfer can occur while legal proceedings are ongoing.

He would not have to drop his appeal, however, to be freed on compassionate grounds.

The Libyan government applied in May to have al-Megrahi repatriated under a prison transfer agreement it has with Britain.

Separately, al-Megrahi applied in July for release on compassionate grounds, claiming he is terminally ill with prostate cancer.

The former Libyan secret service agent is the sole person convicted for the December 1988 bombing of Pan Am 103 that killed 270 people — most of them Americans.

He was arrested in 1991 and held under house arrest in Libya until handed over in 1998 to Britain. He was convicted in 2001 by a special Scottish court set held at Kamp van Zeist in the Netherlands. The current legal action is his second appeal.

Dr. Jim Swire, whose daughter Flora died on Flight 103, said Thursday his greatest fear was that the appeal would be dropped and therefore the truth about the bombing would never be known.

US Lawmaker Arrives in Burma to Meet Top Military Leader

U.S. Senator Jim Webb has arrived in Burma's administrative capital for talks with the country's military leaders. The Democrat senator from Virginia will be the first high-ranking U.S. official to meet with General Than Shwe.

The visit comes just days after the United States and other Western nations condemned the military government's order to extend the house arrest of opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi.

It is not known what specific issues will be covered during the talks Saturday, but the White House said Senator Webb would convey "strong" U.S. views on Burma's political path.

Iftekhar Ahmed Chowdhury, a fellow at the Institute of Asian Studies at the National University of Singapore, says the meeting appears to signal Burma's willingness to engage with the United States. The U.S. and other Western nations have long imposed sanctions on the government, which he says have not worked.

"I think this is something we all can look forward to…. I think peer pressure and persuasion are the twin elements that could bring about results in a more desirable way in Naypyidaw," said Chowdhury.

The military has ruled Burma for more than 40 years. In 1990, Aung San Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy won elections but the military never allowed it to govern. In September 2007, it brutally quashed peaceful protest by Buddhist monks.

On Tuesday, Aung San Suu Kyi was convicted of violating her house arrest following an incident in May when an American entered her lakeside home uninvited. She was ordered to remain under house arrest for another one and a half years - a sentence that human rights groups and foreign governments say was aimed at preventing her from participating in next year's elections. The Nobel Peace laureate has been under house arrest for 14 of the last 20 years.

A few members of the NLD have been asked to travel to Naypyidaw, the country's capital, while Webb is there, but it is not clear if they are to meet with the senator. Nor is known if Webb will be able to see Aung San Suu Kyi in Rangoon.

The senator is the first U.S. member of Congress to visit Burma in more than a decade. He arrived in Naypyidaw from Laos, as part of a five-nation tour of Asia as the chairman of the Senate subcommittee on East Asian and Pacific Affairs. He was formerly as the Secretary of the Navy and served as a Marine in Vietnam.

Michael Jackson's mother given custody of children

Michael Jackson's mother was granted permanent custody of the singer's three children Monday, ending one of the court battles that had been brewing since the pop star's death.Los Angeles County Superior Court Judge Mitchell Beckloff approved the agreement reached last week by attorneys for Katherine Jackson and Debbie Rowe, mother of the two older children, in which the children will be raised by their grandmother and Rowe keeps visitation and legal parental rights. The late pop icon had said in his 2002 will that his mother should care for Prince Michael Jr., 12, and Paris Michael Katherine, 11, and his youngest child, Prince Michael II, 7, known as Blanket, who was carried by a surrogate. Beckloff made the appointment over a last-minute bid by Jackson's dermatologist to get involved in the case.

The judge ruled that Dr. Arnold Klein, who treated Jackson for nearly 25 years, had no legal standing. An attorney for the doctor said his client had concerns about the children's welfare, but did not specify. Rowe met Jackson while working in Klein's office.Moving through a long list of issues before him at the day's hearing, Beckloff also approved undisclosed monthly allowances for the singer's mother and children. Katherine Jackson's attorneys filed papers last month asking for the payments, saying their client had no source of income other than Social Security, and that her son had provided for her when he was alive.

Beckloff granted Katherine Jackson the full amount she requested for herself, but reduced the sum that attorneys requested for the children, saying some of it appeared unnecessary. The matter of Jackson's estate, on the other hand, still seemed contentious.

Attorneys for Katherine Jackson and the special administrators named in Jackson's will met for 90 minutes during the morning hearing to discuss a settlement, but came back and told the judge they were unable to reach one. Katherine Jackson, in papers filed last week, accused the temporary administrators -- music executive John McClain and entertainment attorney John Branca -- of keeping her in the dark about the estate's affairs.

Beckloff on Monday extended the temporary powers of the administrators for an additional 60 days.

Adam Lambert Out and About

Once the hoopla surrounding Adam Lambert's runner-up finish on the 8th season of "American Idol" subsided, the glam rocker put the gay rumors to rest when he confirmed his sexual orientation in a Rolling Stone cover article.

Michael Douglas' son in NYC drug arrest

NEW YORK - Law enforcement officials say the son of Oscar-winning actor Michael Douglas has been arrested on a drug charge at an upscale New York City hotel.
Two people familiar with the investigation say 30-year-old Cameron Douglas was arrested July 28 on a methamphetamine-dealing charge at the Hotel Gansevoort (GANZ'-uh-vawt) in Manhattan. They spoke Monday on condition of anonymity because the investigation is ongoing.

Cameron Douglas has acted in movies including 2003's "It Runs in the Family," starring his father and grandfather Kirk Douglas.

He also was arrested in California in 2007 on cocaine possession charges. His attorney then said the arresting officer didn't do his job properly.

There's no telephone listing for him. It's unclear whether he has a new attorney.

Michael Douglas' publicist and agent haven't returned calls.

The hotel says it has no comment.

Report: North Korea's Kim has pancreatic cancer

SEOUL, South Korea – North Korean leader Kim Jong Il has life-threatening pancreatic cancer, a news report said Monday, days after fresh images of him looking gaunt spurred speculation that his health was worsening following a reported stroke last year.

The 67-year-old Kim was diagnosed with the cancer around the time he was felled by the stroke last summer, Seoul's YTN television reported, citing unidentified intelligence officials in South Korea and China.

The report cited the officials saying the disease is "threatening" Kim's life.

Pancreatic cancer is usually found in its final stage, and considering Kim's age, he is expected to live no more than five years, the report said.

South Korea's spy agency said it could not confirm the report. Unification Ministry spokesman Chun Hae-sung told reporters he knows nothing of the report. Foreign Ministry spokesman Moon Tae-young also said he had no information.

Kim's health is a focus of intense media speculation due to concerns about instability in the North and a possible power struggle if he were to die without naming a successor. His third and youngest son, Kim Jong Un, has widely been reported as being groomed as heir, but the regime has made no announcement to the outside world.

North Korea's closed nature and its state-controlled media make it all but impossible to verify reports about Kim's health and his successor.

Monday's report came after Kim last week made a rare public appearance at an annual memorial for his late father and North Korea's founder, Kim Il Sung. It was only the second state event he has attended since the reported stroke.

Television footage showed him markedly thinner and with less hair. He also limped slightly, and the sides of his tightly pursed lips looked imbalanced in what were believed to be the effects of a stroke.

The images touched off speculation that he could have other health problems.

South Korea's spy agency has long suspected that Kim has diabetes and heart disease.

Medical doctor and professor Min Yang-ki of Seoul's Hallym University Medical Center has said diabetes usually leads to weight loss. The neurologist also said Kim's limping appears to be a result of a stroke. However, he said, overall it appeared Kim has recovered from that reported illness.

Kim walked on his own into a Pyongyang auditorium for last week's memorial at a normal pace and bowed while standing during a moment of silence.

North Korea experts said the latest images of Kim show he is still fit enough to rule.

Yang Moo-jin, a professor at Seoul's University of North Korean Studies, said he doubts the YTN report about pancreatic cancer because the number of Kim's "field-guidance" trips to workplaces has increased significantly this year.

"Would he be able to carry out such brisk activity while having pancreatic cancer?" Yang said.

Seoul's Unification Ministry, which closely monitors the North, said late last month that Kim made 77 trips to factories and farms across the nation through late June, compared with 49 visits made during the same period last year.

Kim Jong Il took over North Korea after his father died in 1994 of heart failure at age 82, though he did not take on his father's title of president. He runs the North from his post as chairman of the National Defense Commission.

In early April, he presided over a parliamentary meeting where he was re-elected as leader.

The South's spy agency believes that Kim's 26-year-old youngest son, Jong Un, is sure to succeed his father, Seoul's Chosun Ilbo daily reported Monday, citing a recent report to the National Assembly by the National Intelligence Service.

The agency also reported that Kim Jong Il is expected to officially designate the son as his successor in 2012, the centennial anniversary of late national founder Kim Il Sung's birth, the paper said.

But the regime under the son is expected to be unstable and vulnerable to internal political strife as Kim Jong Il's brother-in-law, Jang Song Thaek, could attempt to snatch power, the paper said.

A U.S.-based scholar who recently traveled to Pyongyang said Saturday that he thinks the son's official designation is expected to come "relatively soon."

"In the past, talking about succession is almost taboo," University of Georgia political scientist Han S. Park told The Associated Press. "But on this trip, I was able to discuss this with officials and acquaintances."

Park said the consensus among the North Koreans he met was that the next leader would be a person who "inherited Kim Il Sung's thoughts, Kim Il Sung's characteristics and Kim Il Sung's leadership."

Japan PM to call vote, faces no-confidence motion

TOKYO – Japanese Prime Minister Taro Aso told ruling party leaders Monday he will dissolve parliament and hold general elections next month, following a crushing defeat for his party in Tokyo municipal polls considered a barometer of voter sentiment.

The decision came as opposition parties, emboldened by a surge in popularity, submitted a joint no-confidence motion in parliament against the prime minister and his Cabinet.

Aso told leaders of his Liberal Democratic Party he would likely dissolve the powerful lower house of the legislature next week, with a general election to be held on Aug. 30, according to Osamu Sakashita, a spokesman at the prime minister's office.

The move was widely seen as a last-ditch attempt to keep the ruling party in power after the Liberal Democrats and their coalition lost their majority Sunday in the Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly. The assembly elections have been closely watched as a bellwether of what's ahead for Aso's party.

Meanwhile, the opposition, led by the Democratic Party of Japan, submitted the no-confidence motion to the powerful lower house of parliament, said party spokesman Toshiaki Oikawa. The motion was not expected to pass and was instead seen as a symbolic action to embarrass Aso.

Sunday's Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly vote does not directly affect the outcome of the upcoming national election, but the defeat deepened turmoil in the ruling party, with many lawmakers calling for fresh leadership heading into elections. Others were already jumping ship — lawmaker Kotaro Nagasaki submitted his withdrawal from the party on Monday.

WTO cuts trade forecast, sees rising protectionism

GENEVA: The World Trade Organisation warned on Wednesday of rising protectionism amid the economic crisis as it sharply cut its forecast for trade volumes of developed and developing economies this year.

Making its latest assessment of the global economic situation, the WTO also observed that the sharp contraction of the global economy registered in the first quarter this year "appears to be slowing down."

However, citing risks including rising unemployment and oil prices, the organisation lowered its forecast of global trade contraction to 10.0 percent from its March forecast of a shrinkage of 9.0 percent.

Trading volumes of developed economies are now expected to shrink by 14.0 percent instead of 10.0 percent while those of developing economies would contract 7.0 percent, rather than the earlier forecast 2.0-3.0 percent. Amid the economic crisis, the WTO said in its report to member states that there has been a growing number of instances of protectionism.

"In the past three months, there has been further slippage towards more trade restricting and distorting policies," it said in the report obtained by AFP. The WTO added that "resort to high intensity protectionist measures has been contained overall, albeit with difficulties."

It noted that even without taking into account trade measures put in place due to the H1N1 flu pandemic, there were more than twice as many new trade barriers introduced than new trade liberalising measures. It said restrictions related to the A(H1N1) flu pandemic has been "most noticeable," listing at least 39 member states which have imposed measures such as import bans on pork products from swine flu-affected countries.

"A worsening of the A(H1N1) flu pandemic could also create further downside risk to global economic recovery," it said. The trade organisation also raised renewed concerns over stimulus programmes put in place by governments in a bid to lift economies out of the recession.

Major military operation under way in Afghanistan

NAWA, Afghanistan – Thousands of U.S. Marines and hundreds of Afghan troops poured into Taliban-infested villages of southern Afghanistan with armor and helicopters Thursday in the first major operation under President Barack Obama's strategy to stabilize the country.

The offensive in the once-forgotten war was launched shortly after 1 a.m. Thursday local time in Helmand province, a Taliban stronghold and the world's largest opium poppy producing area. The goal is to clear insurgents from the hotly contested region before the nation's Aug. 20 presidential election.

Officials described the operation, dubbed Khanjar, or "Strike of the Sword," as the largest and fastest-moving of the war's new phase, involving nearly 4,000 of the newly arrived Marines and 650 Afghan forces. British forces last week led similar, but smaller, missions to clear out insurgents in Helmand and neighboring Kandahar provinces.

"Where we go we will stay, and where we stay, we will hold, build and work toward transition of all security responsibilities to Afghan forces," Marine Corps Brig. Gen. Larry Nicholson said in a statement.

Transport helicopters carried hundreds of Marines into the village of Nawa, some 20 miles (30 kilometers) south of the provincial capital of Lashkar Gah, in a region where no U.S. or other NATO troops have operated in large numbers.

Daybreak brought the sporadic crackle of gunfire, but no heavy fighting immediately broke out. Medical helicopters circled overhead and landed, indicating possible early casualties among the Marines.

A roadside bomb early in the mission wounded one Marine, but he was able to continue, spokesman Capt. Bill Pelletier said.

Southern Afghanistan is a Taliban stronghold but also a region where Afghan President Hamid Karzai is seeking votes from fellow Pashtun tribesmen.

The Pentagon is deploying 21,000 additional troops to Afghanistan in time for the elections and expects the total number of U.S. forces there to reach 68,000 by year's end. That is double the number of troops in Afghanistan in 2008, but still half of much as are now in Iraq.

The Taliban, who took control of Afghanistan in 1996 and were ousted from power following a U.S.-led invasion in 2001, have made a violent comeback, wreaking havoc in much of the country's south and east, forcing the United States to pour in the new troops.

Two weeks after: Iran rallies fade, elite split

TEHRAN (Reuters) - Iran's leadership has quelled mass protests over a disputed presidential poll two weeks ago, but the battle has moved off the street into a behind-the-scenes struggle splitting the clerical establishment into two camps. EDITORS' NOTE: Reuters and other foreign media are subject to Iranian restrictions on their ability to report, film or take pictures in Tehran.

Hardline preacher Ayatollah Ahmad Khatami is expected to reinforce the government message when he leads Friday prayers that the June 12 election in which President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was declared victor was legal and fair.

Supporters of defeated candidate Mirhossein Mousavi, who want the result annulled, plan to release thousands of balloons on Friday with the message: "Neda you will always remain in our hearts," in memory of the young woman killed last week who has become an icon of the protests.
The last mass protests were on Saturday and a combination of warnings, arrests and the threat of police action have driven large demonstrations off Tehran's street with small gatherings dispersed with tear gas and baton charges.

The worst unrest since the Islamic Revolution of 1979 set off by the poll left about 20 people killed, prompting President Barrack Obama to say he was "appalled and outraged" by the security crackdown in the world's fifth largest oil exporter.

Group of Eight powers meeting in Trieste plan in a statement to deplore post-election violence, to urge Tehran to settle the crisis through peaceful, democratic means and to respect basic rights including freedom of expression, a diplomat said.

The condemnation by Obama, who had been trying to improve ties with Iran before the election, prompted Ahmadinejad to accuse Obama of behaving like his predecessor and say there was not much point in talking to Washington unless Obama apologized.

"I tell (the United States) that all those people who voted and all the Iranian nation will stand against them," the Iranian president, who was elected for a second four-year term, said in response to Obama's comments.

Before the poll, Obama, aiming to change the policy of George W. Bush toward Iran, had hoped to persuade Tehran to drop what Washington suspects are plans to develop nuclear bombs, while seeking cooperation in Afghanistan and Iraq.

Death spurs Michael Jackson album sales

LOS ANGELES, June 25 (Reuters) - In death, Michael Jackson is enjoying a commercial renaissance that had eluded him for years.
The self-proclaimed "king of pop" who died suddenly on Thursday occupied the top 15 slots on online retailer Amazon.com Inc's (AMZN.O) best-selling albums within hours.

The No. 1 disc, not surprisingly, was the 25th anniversary reissue of his 1982 blockbuster "Thriller," the biggest selling album in history with estimated worldwide sales of almost 50 million copies. Three different configurations of "Thriller" came in at number 12, 13, and 14.
Second place went to 1979's "Off the Wall," which was followed by 1987's "Bad." Both were also massive sellers upon their initial release. His last studio album, 2001's "Invincible," came in at a more modest No. 10.

The other albums on the list were mostly compilations either of his solo work or his hits with the Jackson 5.

Jackson's Sony Music label, a unit of Sony Corp (6758.T) (SNE.N), said he sold an estimated 750 million records worldwide, and released 13 No. 1 singles.

"His artistry and magnetism changed the music landscape forever," Sony Corp Chairman, CEO and President Sir Howard Stringer said in a statement. "We have been profoundly affected by his originality, creativity and amazing body of work."

First Summit for Emerging Giants

The world's newest economic grouping is to hold its first summit in the Russian city of Yekaterinburg on Tuesday.

Bric is named after its four member states - emerging giants Brazil, Russia, India and China.

They are expected to put efforts to improve the global economy at the top of the agenda.

The BBC's Rupert Wingfield Hayes, in Russia, says Bric's main goal is to force the West to give greater recognition to the developing giants.

China is now the world's third biggest economy, while Russia, India and Brazil are catching up with many key European economies.

The term Bric was coined by US investment bank Goldman Sachs which used it to describe the growing power of emerging market economies in 2001.

Its research suggested that the four developing economies could be amongst the world's strongest by 2050.

The meeting in Yekaterinburg, a city some 1,420km (880 miles) east of Moscow, will include presidents Dmitry Medvedev of Russia, Hu Jintao of China, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva of Brazil and Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh.

Working together
Analysts say that as the global recession bites, the four Bric nations are showing a growing willingness to work together.

Rory MacFarquhar, a Moscow-based economist at Goldman Sachs, said the significance of the summit would be political rather than economic.

Both Russia and China have questioned the role of the dollar in the world's economy, leading to speculation that Bric might be considering the creation of a new global reserve currency.
However, on Sunday a Kremlin spokesman said that would not be on the agenda.

Russian Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin said Tuesday's meeting would focus more on ways to reform international financial institutions.

His remarks led to a rise in the value of the dollar on international markets.

However, the BBC's business reporter Katie Hunt says that fears that such big holders of dollar assets may be looking to switch from the US currency have unsettled financial markets and US politicians.

Japan bans all exports to North Korea

TOKYO: Japan on Tuesday banned all exports to North Korea to punish the communist state for its nuclear and missile tests, a trade ministry official said.

"The cabinet has approved the total ban on exports to North Korea," said trade ministry official Masaru Yamazumi. "The ban will be effective until April 13 next year. We have expanded the ban to cover all goods."

The cabinet of Prime Minister Taro Aso earlier agreed on the new sanctions, an official told AFP, without specifying what those sanctions were. Tokyo's latest move comes amid worries Pyongyang may conduct another nuclear test after the UN Security Council voted on Friday on tougher sanctions in response to the regime's May 25 nuclear test and missile firings.

Japan first imposed formal bilateral sanctions on Pyongyang in 2006 after North Korea staged its first atomic test. Tokyo has since stopped all imports from North Korea and visits by its citizens, except in special cases, and banned port calls by its ships. To target regime leaders, Japan has also banned exports of 24 luxury products – including caviar, fatty tuna and high-end consumer electronics.

Japan's exports to the North totalled 792.6 million yen (8.2 million dollars) in 2008, mainly machinery and transport equipment, such as trains and vehicles, food, electronics and industrial goods, the finance ministry says.

Last month, Japan also tightened a watch on money flows to North Korea, requiring that all remittances over 10 million yen be reported, lowering the limit to a third of the previous threshold. - AFP/so

South Korean leader in US as North Korea tension soars

WASHINGTON: South Korean President Lee Myung-Bak on Monday started a visit to the United States to plan action on North Korea, which staged a giant rally in a defiant show of support for its nuclear drive. The US Congress approved a resolution supporting Lee against the North hours after he arrived.

Lee was due to meet late Monday with Secretary of State Hillary Clinton before a summit on Tuesday with President Barack Obama. Lee was expected to ask Obama for explicit security guarantees after North Korea tested a nuclear bomb, stormed out of a six-nation disarmament accord and scrapped six decades of accords with the South.

The North's ruling party newspaper Rodong Sinmun said Monday that Lee's request was "intolerable" and said that such commitment would be "virtually formalising a provocation for nuclear war." Dennis Blair, the US intelligence chief, said on Monday that a scientific analysis concluded that North Korea "probably" carried out its second-ever nuclear test in May with a yield of "a few kilotons." The UN Security Council last week tightened sanctions against North Korea over the test, including calling for stricter inspections of cargo suspected of containing banned missile and nuclear-related items.

North Korean state media said that some 100,000 people rallied in Pyongyang against the UN Security Council resolution, blaming Washington for organising it. North Korea is ready to "deal telling blows at the vital parts of the US and wipe out all its imperialist aggressor troops no matter where they are in the world," military officer Pak Jae-Gyong was quoted as telling the rally. Lee, a conservative businessman, took office last year.

To the delight of many in Washington, he reversed a decade-long "sunshine policy" under which Seoul provided aid to the impoverished North with few conditions. In Seoul, Unification Minister Hyun In-Taek said that North Korea never intended to give up its atomic weaponry and is thought to have been developing a secret programme for seven to eight years despite taking part in talks. In its response to the UN Security Council resolution, the communist state vowed on Saturday to build more bombs and to start a new weapons programme based on uranium enrichment. Hyun told a parliamentary hearing he believes the enrichment programme - a second route to an atomic bomb after the North's admitted plutonium operation - had in fact been in existence for years.

"As the US raised the accusation in 2002, I believe (the uranium enrichment programme) had started before that. I believe it has been there for at least seven to eight years," Hyun said in answer to a question.

Several analysts and officials believe ailing leader Kim Jong-Il, 67, is intensifying military tensions to bolster his authority as he tries to put in place a succession plan involving his youngest son, Kim Jong-Un. Amid US reports that North Korea could be preparing its third nuclear test, South Korea has sent extra troops and naval units to border islands seen as a likely flashpoint.

The US House of Representatives approved a resolution demanding that North Korea end its "hostile rhetoric" against Seoul and abide by UN resolutions and the six-nation nuclear accord.

Deaths at Massive Pro-Opposition Rally in Tehran

Iranian state television is reporting that at least seven people were killed Monday when they allegedly tried to attack a military post in Tehran, near the site of a massive pro-opposition rally.

The Press TV report Tuesday says several others were injured when unidentified gunmen fired into the crowd around sundown after a peaceful rally.There had been earlier reports from eyewitnesses saying armed members of a pro-government militia opened fire at one point, killing at least one demonstrator and wounding several others Monday. Some of the protesters had set the militia headquarters on fire.

Another Rally PlannedIranian protesters are planning to hold another demonstration Tuesday against the disputed re-election of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad -- defying government warnings, and in spite of the violence at Monday's rally.Hundreds of thousands of Iranians flooded the streets of the capital Monday to see and hear defeated reformist presidential candidate Mir Hossein Mousavi, a former prime minister. Mr. Mousavi told the crowd through a loudspeaker that people want to defend their votes and their rights. He has accused the government of voter fraud.

President Ahmadinejad himself is out of the country. He arrived in Russia Tuesday to attend a regional summit, one day later than originally planned.The protesters Monday chanted their support for Mr. Mousavi and said their votes for him should be counted. Official results said Mr. Ahmadinejad won re-election by a landslide, with Mr. Mousavi a distant second. Riot police were visible during Monday's opposition rally, but they took no action to disperse the crowd.

Obama ConcernedIn Washington, President Barack Obama said the world is inspired by images of peaceful protesters in Iran, but is watching the situation closely. Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has asked the powerful Guardian Council of Islamic clerics to investigate allegations of voter fraud. Mr. Mousavi had appealed to the Council Sunday to cancel the election results.President Ahmadinejad says the election was free and fair.Official election results show Mr. Ahmadinejad won 63% of the vote, compared to 34% for Mr. Mousavi, his main rival.





By VOA News 16 June 2009

Could North Korea Provoke a New Korean War?

To fear a new Korean War is historically inaccurate, because, in fact, the last one never ended: the world's most dangerous border, across which some 2 million North Korean, U.S. and South Korean troops face each other along the 38th parallel of the Korean Peninsula is, in fact, simply an armistice line.

On July 27, 1953, the U.S. and North Korea signed a truce pausing, but not ending, a war that claimed more than 2 million lives, including those of 36,940 U.S. troops. And the North's recent nuclear and missile saber-rattling has many growing nervous about the potential for a resumption of hostilities. North Korea, in fact, announced on May 27 that it was withdrawing from the armistice.

It declared it could no longer guarantee the safety of ships sailing through the Yellow Sea off its western coast, and would no longer respect the legal status of several islands off South Korea's coast. It also vowed to attack South Korea if North Korean vessels suspected of smuggling nuclear and missile components are stopped and searched by a U.S.-led U.N. naval armada — a proposal currently under discussion.

U.S. officials are concerned that political instability inside the Pyongyang regime may raise the danger of confrontation. "Dear Leader" Kim Jong Il has been weakened by a stroke suffered late last year, his 26-year old heir apparent is not yet ready to take the reins and the North Korean military is eager to maintain its preeminence in the coming political succession. "Any time you have a combination of this behavior of doing provocative things in order to excite a response — plus succession questions — you have a potentially dangerous mixture," said U.S. Director of National Intelligence Dennis Blair on Monday.

Despite the rising tensions, however, a number of factors militate against a new chapter being opened in the Korean War. South Korea, backed by the U.S., doesn't want war, because the North has some 13,000 artillery tubes aimed at Seoul and the more than 10 million South Koreans living within 30 miles of the DMZ. North Korea, backed by China, doesn't want war because if it comes, it all but guarantees the collapse of Kim's regime, which is also the family business. (See pictures of the rise of Kim Jong Il.)

Washington has made clear that it wants to solve this latest flare-up via diplomatic channels. "Our focus is now — and has been and likely will continue to be — on coming up with diplomatic and economic pressures that will persuade the North to abandon its pursuit of nuclear weapons and the platforms to deliver them," Pentagon spokesman Geoff Morrell said June 8. And if that fails? "We all need to be prudent about our planning for defensive measures." That suggests neither Washington nor Seoul is going to take preemptive military action. The immediate priority of the U.S. and its allies is to prevent North Korea from spreading its nuclear know-how around the world. And their own lever is China's influence over the hermit regime.

"There's a view that if you want to get the Chinese to act on North Korea, you need to signal a willingness to take military action," Scott Snyder, a Korea expert with the Council on Foreign Relations, said last week. "But at the same time, how do you do that — especially in conjunction with allies — without the Chinese feeling that you're trying to manipulate them tactically?" China's role will be key, according to Larry Wortzel, who served two tours as a U.S. Army military attaché in Beijing.

"China will not let North Korea collapse," he was told by several top People's Liberation Army officials during the Clinton Administration, according to his account in the latest issue of the U.S. Army journal Parameters. Beijing will help Pyongyang survive any sanctions. "There are limits to what the United States and its allies can do," he warns, "unless they want a complete break with, or to invite conflict with, China.

" China's motives are twofold: keep North Korean refugees from flooding across the border, as well as keep a U.S. ally from emerging on China's doorstep. If it came to war, however, a key goal of any large North Korean attack would be to launch as many shells and rockets toward Seoul from its artillery tubes and launchers, many self-propelled or on railcars. The goal of U.S. and South Korean forces would be to destroy that artillery capability before too many rounds could be launched. While North Korea would build any attack around its 1.2 million–strong army, the U.S. and South Korea would rely more on their air and naval forces.

The Pentagon has largely refrained from saber-rattling, and is not planning to reinforce the 28,000 U.S. troops now in South Korea, or the 35,000 stationed in Japan. When pressed, U.S. military leaders concede that even their defensive plans will be tougher to implement given the fact that they currently have roughly 175,000 troops deployed in Afghanistan and Iraq. "There would have to be a level of ad hoc conglomeration of forces," General James Conway, the Marine commandant, told a Senate panel June 2. "But in the end, I am convinced we would prevail."

TIME[dot].com

Senate approves tobacco measure

WASHINGTON - The Senate struck a historic blow against smoking in the United States yesterday, voting overwhelmingly to give regulators new power to limit nicotine in the cigarettes that kill nearly a half-million Americans a year, to drastically curtail ads that glorify tobacco, and to ban flavored products aimed at spreading the habit to young people.

President Obama said he was eager to sign the legislation. The House passed a slightly different version in April, but planned a vote for today to accept the Senate bill, sending it to Obama's desk. Cigarette foes said the measure would not only reduce deaths, but cut the $100 billion in annual healthcare costs linked to tobacco.

"Miracles still happen. The United States Senate has finally said 'no' to Big Tobacco," Senator Edward M. Kennedy, the Massachusetts Democrat has championed the bill for more than a decade, said minutes after the Senate's 79-17 vote.

Supporters of regulation of tobacco have struggled for more than a decade to overcome powerful resistance - from the industry and elsewhere. In 2000 the Supreme Court ruled 5-4 that the Food and Drug Administration did not have the authority to regulate tobacco products, and the Bush administration opposed several previous efforts by Congress to write a new law.

Final passage "will make history by giving the scientists and medical experts at the FDA the power to take sensible steps that will reduce tobacco's harmful effects and prevent tobacco companies from marketing their products to children," Obama said.

Obama's signature would add tobacco to other huge, nationally important areas that have come under greater government supervision in his presidency. Those include banking, housing, and autos.

Cigarette smoking kills about 400,000 people in the United States every year, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. About 45 million US adults are smokers, though the prevalence has fallen since the surgeon general's warning 45 years ago that tobacco causes lung cancer.

The legislation would give the drug agency authority to regulate the content, marketing, and advertising of tobacco products.

The FDA could order changes or bans on products that it determines are a danger to public health, and could limit nicotine yields, though not ban nicotine or cigarettes. Costs of the new program would be paid for through a fee imposed on tobacco companies.

WHO declares H1N1 flu pandemic

GENEVA: The A(H1N1) flu crisis has escalated into the world's first influenza pandemic in 40 years, the World Health Organisation declared on Thursday, after infecting tens of thousands of people in 74 countries. WHO Director General Margaret Chan said the declaration of a "moderate" pandemic should not spark panic and did not mean the death toll from A(H1N1), which currently stands at 144, would rise sharply.

The UN body said it was not recommending the closure of borders nor restrictions in movement of people, goods and services. But it warned the virus was spreading beyond the Americas where it was first detected in April.

"We will be raising our pandemic alert level to level six; and this means that the world is moving into the early days of its first influenza pandemic in the 21st century," Chan told reporters after a meeting of scientific experts.

"At this time, the global assessment is that we are seeing a moderate pandemic," she added. The WHO raised its six-phase alert level to five at the end of April, indicating an imminent pandemic.

The latest WHO figures show that the number of reported A(H1N1) infections has reached 28,774 in 74 countries, including 144 deaths. The vast majority of the deaths have been in Mexico, the original epicentre of the outbreak, and no deaths have been announced outside the Americas. "Moving to pandemic phase six level does not imply we will see increase in number of deaths or very severe cases," said Chan. "Quite on the contrary, many people having mild disease will recover without medicine in some cases, and it is good news, but the tendency to move into complacency is our biggest concern," she added.

Chan said the health agency is concerned that the virus is causing "very severe disease disproportionately" among people 30 to 50 years old. WHO Assistant Director General Keiji Fukuda warned the pandemic could last up to two years. "For a period for one to two years the virus is going around the world, and is getting people infected in a way a pandemic virus will get people infected... We need to be flexible how we respond to it," said Fukuda.

The declaration comes amid growing evidence that the virus, which originated in Mexico two months ago, is now being widely transmitted between humans in Asia and Europe as well as the Americas. EU officials promised measures on Thursday to reduce the impact of H1N1 flu as Spain said 22 schools in the Madrid region had been hit by the virus. The United States said it was well prepared to tackle the pandemic as it had been taking precautionary measures. "We acted aggressively to stay ahead of the virus as it spread across the country. Now our challenge is to prepare for a possible return in the fall," Health Secretary Kathleen Sebelius said in a statement.

Hong Kong authorities on Thursday ordered all primary schools in the city to be closed for two weeks after the first cluster of local H1N1 flu cases was found in the Chinese territory. In Germany, a school for Japanese youngsters in the western city of Duesseldorf was closed after 27 children tested positive for the virus. And in Australia, four H1N1 flu victims were admitted to intensive care wards. Following the announcement, the Red Cross and Red Crescent societies were mobilising to respond to the pandemic.

Chan said that it was up to individual countries to decide how to proceed given the outbreak was now classified as a pandemic. "The global level assessment is very different from national level assessment because it has to take into account the vulnerability of the population in a specific country and also the health system resilience," she said.

Although no vaccine against A(H1N1) has yet to be produced, drug companies are looking to come up with one by the end of June or early July and last month sent three "seed viruses" to drug companies for use in making a vaccine. Chan said the WHO would ask drug-makers to quickly prepare to produce H1N1 flu vaccines once the production of seasonal flu shots ends in the next couple of weeks.

The last flu pandemic came after an outbreak of the H3N2 viral strain from 1968-69, which originated in Hong Kong, and went on to kill up to two million people. - AFP/so/de

WHO PANDEMIC ALERT PHASES

Phase 1: No infections in humans are being caused by viruses circulating in animals.

Phase 2: Animal flu virus causes infection in humans, and is a potential pandemic threat.

Phase 3: Flu causes sporadic cases in people, but no significant human-to-human transmission.

Phase 4: Human-to-human transmission and community-level outbreaks.

Phase 5: Human-to-human transmission in at least two countries. Strong signal pandemic imminent.

Phase 6: Virus spreads to another country in a different region. Global pandemic under way.


POST-PEAK: Pandemic activity appears to be decreasing though second wave possible.Post-pandemic: activity returns to normal, seasonal flu levels.

UN set for H1N1 flu crisis talks

UN health officials have called an emergency meeting to discuss swine flu, amid rumours that the first global flu pandemic in 40 years will be declared.

The World Health Organization announced the meeting after a steep rise in the number of cases in Australia.

Hong Kong on Thursday announced it was closing all its nurseries and primary schools for two weeks after 12 students tested positive for the virus.

The last global flu pandemic came in 1968 over the Hong Kong flu.

That pandemic killed about one million people.

A disease is classed as a pandemic when transmission between humans becomes widespread in two regions of the world.

Evolving situation

The latest virus emerged in Mexico in April and since then thousands of cases have been confirmed throughout North and South America.

The H1N1 strain has spread to 74 countries but the WHO has resisted labelling the outbreak a full-blown pandemic.

WHO chief Margaret Chan talked to officials from eight countries with large flu outbreaks on Wednesday in an attempt to confirm the spread of the disease.

She has said she believes the situation can be regarded as a pandemic but says she wants clear evidence before making an announcement.

The WHO's move follows Australia's confirmation of more than 1,200 cases - a four-fold increase in a week.

All primary schools and nurseries in Hong Kong are to shut for 14 days from Friday in a bid to contain the virus, the territory's chief executive Donald Tsang said.

It follows confirmation that 12 secondary school pupils have contracted the illness. Secondary schools are not yet being ordered to close.

At least 50 people are now confirmed to have the virus in the territory.

The head of the WHO's global influenza programme, Keiji Fukuda, said the situation had "evolved a lot" in recent days.

"We are getting close to knowing that we are in a pandemic situation," he said.

Although most sufferers experience regular flu symptoms and make a full recovery, the WHO has confirmed 141 deaths from 27,737 cases.

The BBC's health correspondent, Jane Dreaper, says classifying the virus as a pandemic does not mean that the virus has suddenly become more deadly.

But it does send a clear signal to health officials and businesses to continue planning for the possibility of large numbers of people catching the virus, she says.

The move may speed up the production of vaccines and prompt national governments to impose measures such as travel bans.

The WHO's emergency committee is due to meet in Geneva at 1000 GMT.

Koreas talk amid UN sanction call

North and South Korea held rare talks lasting just under one hour, about their jointly managed Kaesong industrial park.

Hopes of progress were low amid tensions over the North's nuclear programme.
Key Security Council members have agreed on the wording of a draft UN resolution to expand sanctions against North Korea, diplomats say.

The move is a response to Pyongyang's recent nuclear and missile testing.

The BBC's correspondent John Sudworth says the Kaesong plant was seen as a symbol of possible reconciliation between the two halves of this divided peninsular, but amid the worsening security situation, the future of the project is now in doubt.

Last month North Korea announced that it was unilaterally scrapping wage and rent agreements, and if the 100 or so South Korean companies operating there didn't like it, they could leave. One South Korean firm did leave this week.

South Korea, for its part, wants a South Korean manager released from North Korean detention.
Officials in Seoul said they had low expectations from the talks, only the second this year, given the North's recent nuclear and missile tests.